Soviet Kosmos 482 Spacecraft Set For Uncontrolled Reentry

A fragment of a long-abandoned Soviet spacecraft is expected to make an uncontrolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere around May 10, 2025. The object is the descent module from Kosmos 482, a space probe launched in 1972 as part of the Soviet Union’s ambitious Venera program, which aimed to explore the surface of Venus.

However, due to a malfunction in the upper stage of the Soyuz rocket during launch, Kosmos 482 failed to achieve the necessary velocity to escape Earth’s gravity. Instead of heading toward Venus, it was trapped in an elliptical orbit around Earth.

The probe, a twin of the successful Venera 8 spacecraft, was built to withstand the extreme conditions of Venus’s atmosphere, including high temperatures and pressures.

Venera 8 ultimately landed on Venus and transmitted data for just over 50 minutes before being destroyed by the planet’s harsh environment. Kosmos 482, by contrast, split into two major parts after its failed mission: the main spacecraft body, which reentered Earth’s atmosphere and disintegrated in 1981, and the highly durable descent module, which has remained in orbit for more than five decades.

Now, after 53 years in space, this 495-kilogram (1,091-pound), one-meter-wide descent module is predicted to reenter Earth’s atmosphere at a speed of around 242 kilometers per hour (150 mph). According to Marco Langbroek, a lecturer in space situational awareness at Delft Technical University, the module’s reinforced design may allow it to survive reentry largely intact, posing a non-zero impact risk. He likens the potential danger to that of a small meteorite striking Earth.

Due to its orbital inclination of 52 degrees, the module could land anywhere between 52°N and 52°S latitude. This wide band covers large portions of the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australia. However, with oceans covering over 70% of the planet’s surface, the most probable outcome is a splashdown in water. Still, until its descent path becomes clearer, the precise time and location of impact remain uncertain.

Satellite trackers and space situational awareness experts are closely monitoring the object’s trajectory. More accurate reentry predictions will emerge as the spacecraft continues its slow descent. The case underscores the long-lasting presence of space debris and the occasional risks posed by relics from the early era of space exploration.

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